2024 Draft: Michael Penix Jr. Might be the Steal of the Century
You Can Find Me in the A!!!!
A pick made early in the 1st round of the NFL Draft left many scratching their head. With the 8th pick in the draft, the Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. (MPJ), quarterback, University of Washington. Most were left wondering just what in the hell the Falcons were doing.
During the offseason, Atlanta picked up a viable quarterback by the name of Kirk Cousins. Cousins has been one of the NFL’s highest paid quarterbacks over the last few years due to contractual circumstances that have been in his favor.
While playing for the Washington Redskins, he was franchised tagged due to the organizations willingness to commit to the QB long term. He spent two years under the franchise tag in chocolate city. His second year under the franchise tag netted him $23.9 million dollars. Cousins is the first quarterback to receive the franchise tag in consecutive seasons.
In 2018, after a few years under the franchise tag, he left Washington to sign a lucrative three-year, $84 million dollar contract (fully guaranteed) with the Minnesota Vikings.
Cousins performed as an above average quarterback, helping Minnesota achieve a division title and a playoff win during his tenure with the team. His 2023 season was cut short when he suffered a torn Achilles tendon that would serve as his last time donning a Vikings uniform.
In March 2024, Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million dollar contract with the Atlanta Falcons with $100 million guaranteed.
In his career, Cousins has earned over $281 million dollars. That currently ranks 4th behind the likes of Aaron Rodgers (1), Matthew Stafford (2), and Tom Brady (3).
For the record, I am a fan of Kirk Cousins since watching the show Quarterback on Netflix which aired in July 2023. He is what you want in a quarterback and I walked away having a better overall feel for him as a man and a professional athlete. He demonstrates meticulous studying and effort into his preparation to perform throughout practice and on game day.
Alright, Enough of Kirk C.
Revisiting the pick by the Atlanta Falcons, I actually love it. I played for ATL for four years so I root for them deep down, but I know how monumental this is in the bigger scheme of things.
Most people jokingly say the NFL stand for Not For Long. Which is true in some cases. Careers don’t tend to last long as the average career of an NFL player is roughly two to three years (depending what resource you check with). But what might be equally as short is the patience that NFL teams have for quarterbacks who are drafted high.
One major knock on Michael Penix Jr. coming out of college was that he was injury prone. His first four college seasons were spent at Indiana University before transferring to play his final two seasons at The University of Washington.
(Head) Shoulders Knees (and Toes)
He was a promising player at a below average Big Ten school but he also sustained major injuries every year as their Qb. Two torn ACL’s (same knee), a shoulder separation, and clavicle fracture (same shoulder).
The interesting thing about his journey is that he has been healthy at Washington. He even adjusted his style of play while recreating himself. If you turn on highlights of MPJ at Washington, you’ll seldomly see him run.
In fact, looking at his stats should be the most intriguing thing you examine today:
- 2022 – 13 games 35 rushes 92 yards 2.6 yards per rush 4 touchdowns
- 2023 – 15 games 35 rushes 8 yards 0.2 yards per rush 3 touchdowns
The 35 rushes can be misleading because they include things like quarterback sneaks on 3rd or 4th and short, as well as time he might’ve been sacked.
MPJ never appears in more than 7 games in a season while at Indiana due to injury while at Washington he played/started in every game.
This demonstrates that he stands back and wants to throw the ball.
This shows that he stands back in the pocket and gets rid of the ball. Whether throwing it away or getting it into the hands of his check down option.
So… What’s the Problemo?
The reason that people are upset with the pick is glaring. How do you draft a QB who will not play for you in the near future? You have your quarterback so why not select a player that will make the team better since you’ve addressed that position? You gave a guy a $180 million dollar contract and you are contradicting that by picking a young QB who would possibly challenge him for this starting position?
I understand those gripes but here’s an even better question for you… What’s wrong with trying to set up your franchise for the next 10-15 years?
When a quarterback is chosen in the 1st round, it’s pretty much pointing to this player being THE GUY in the next year or two. Unless you already have THE GUY.
Quarterbacks are usually forced into the starting role because where they were drafted (a la Bryce Young CAR). The deficient offensive line or lack of offensive weapons won’t deter the organization from inserting the Qb, And as you will see below, if you do not produce in a short time frame, a team will move on from you quickly.
But what if you can draft a guy and be in no rush to play him? What if you can get him into your organization, have him learn from another very good quarterback, and maybe hand him the keys in three to four years? Would you do it?
I can point to an organization who has done that multiple times and it seems like it’s worked out for the best. The Green Bay Packers. Going from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers and following that up with Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
Over the last 30 years, the Packers have had 3 quarterbacks who have represented the face of their franchise. This is no easy feat.
Rodgers sat behind Favre for two years before his got his opportunity to lead. Love subsequently waited three years before he got his chance as well. Though the jury is still be out on Love, it seems as though the organization has done the right thing grabbing their guy early then playing the waiting game.
It can also be argued that these are all generational players and they had the talent to come in and be a force in the league. I agree with that. But when you combined talent with an extended period of time before you are thrown into the fire, I believe that to be an equation for success.
Also, the last time the Falcons drafted a Black quarterback in the 1st round he was very special. His name was Michael Vick. He set the city on fire with his play and was electric every time he touched the ball. Fans knew that it was possible for him to take it to the house in a moments notice. He was also a lefty as well.
Just a thought that I wanted to let marinate with you.
Who Run It?!
Below are listed all probable starting quarterbacks for week 1 next year*. They have been grouped by division highlighting round selected, pick number, and year drafted. I’ve taken the liberty to include the majority of quarterbacks selected in the 1st round of the 2024 draft to serve as starters for their team for the upcoming season (excluding MPJ).
This visual shows how much NFL teams rely on their quarterback to be the answer for their franchise as well as the foundation.
72% of starting quarterbacks on this list were drafted in the 1st round (23).
Only 2 starting quarterbacks on this list were drafted in the 5th round or later (B. Purdy & G. Minshew).
28% of starting quarterbacks on this list have played (started) in or won a Super Bowl (9).
Only 13% of starting quarterbacks on this list have won a Super Bowl (4) (R. Wilson (1), P. Mahomes (3), A. Rodgers (1), M. Stafford (1))
- Lamar Jackson 1st round Pick 32 (2018) BAL
- **Joe Burrow 1st round Pick 1 (2020) CIN
- Deshaun Watson 1st round Pick 12 (2017) CLE
- **Russell Wilson 3rd round Pick 12 (2012) PIT
- CJ Stroud 1st round Pick 2 (2023) HOU
- Anthony Richardson 1st round Pick 4 (2023) IND
- Trevor Lawrence 1st round Pick 1 (2021) JAC
- Will Levis 2nd round Pick 2 (2023) TEN
- ^Bo Nix 1st round Pick 12 (2024) DEN
- **Patrick Mahomes 1st round Pick 10 (2017) KC
- Gardner Minshew 6th round Pick 5 (2019) LVR
- Justin Herbert 1st round Pick 6 (2020) LAC
- Josh Allen 1st round Pick 7 (2018) BUF
- Tua Tagovailoa 1st round Pick 5 (2020) MIA
- **Aaron Rodgers 1st round Pick 24 (2005) NYJ
- ^Drake Maye 1st round Pick 3 (2024) NE
- Dak Prescott 4th round Pick 37 (2016) DAL
- Daniel Jones 1st round Pick 6 (2019) NYG
- **Jalen Hurts 2nd round Pick 21 (2020) PHI
- ^Jayden Daniels 1st round Pick 2 (2024) WAS
- ^Caleb Williams 1st round Pick 1 (2024) CHI
- **Jared Goff 1st round Pick 1 (2016) DET
- Jordan Love 1st round Pick 26 (2020) GB
- ^JJ McCarthy 1st round Pick 10 (2024) MIN
- Kirk Cousins 4th round Pick 7 (2012) ATL
- Bryce Young 1st round Pick 1 (2023) CAR
- Derek Carr 2nd round Pick 4 (2014) NO
- Baker Mayfield 1st round Pick 1 (2018) TB
- Kyler Murray 1st round Pick 1 (2019) ARI
- **Matthew Stafford 1st round Pick 1 (2009) LAR
- **Brock Purdy 7th pick 41 (2022) SF
- Geno Smith 2nd round Pick 7 (2013) SEA
It’s important to point out that we sit in a really interesting part of football history. Over the last five years, we’ve had a changing of the guard. Retiring cornerstone quarterbacks that have represented the National Football League for at least a decade and in a two cases, decades. Those include Tom Brady NE/TB (23), Drew Brees SD/NO (20), Philip Rivers SD/LAC/IND (17), Peyton Manning IND/DEN (18), Eli Manning NYG (16), Ben Roethlisberger PIT (18), and Matt Ryan ATL/IND (15).
These are seven teams that have been able to avoid the market for a quarterback early in the draft. The departures of these phenoms opened up doors for organizations to search for that next gems to fill these voids.
What a Difference, A Day Makes
“What a Difference A Day Makes. Twenty-four little hours.”
Dinah Washington | What a Difference A Day Makes
Okay, well maybe not the difference of A DAY but things change quickly in the NFL. There isn’t much time to wait when it comes to their investment in a player. ROI (return on investment) must be seen quickly.
More intriguing than the list above, are how quickly NFL teams move on a from a player who they once considered the foundational building block of their organization. Highly drafted QB’s usually have about 2 years to make a significant impact before NFL owners and GM’s decide to move in different direction, usually choosing another quarterback.
Players mentioned below are either playing for a different team than the one they were drafted to or have lost their position as the signal caller they held last season.
- Desmond Ridder 3rd round Pick 10 (2022) Falcons (K. Cousin & M. Penix acquired)
- Justin Fields 1st round Pick 11 (2021) Steelers (Bears traded then drafted C. Williams)
- Kenny Pickett 1st round Pick 20 (2022) Eagles (Steelers traded then acquired R. Wilson)
- Mitchell Trubisky 1st round Pick 2 (2017) Bills (Released by Steelers who later acquired J. Fields)
- Zach Wilson 1st round Pick 2 (2021) Broncos (Jets traded to Broncos)
- Mac Jones 1st round Pick 15 (2021) Jaguars (Patriots traded to Jaguars)
- Sam Howell 5th round Pick 1 (2022) Seahawks (Commanders traded to Seahawks)
- Aidan O’Connell 4th round pick 33 (2023) Raiders (G. Minshew acquired free agency)
Let’s End It Here
Looking at all the facts, data and statistics, this isn’t something we should be mad or upset about. The truth is, we are in an instant gratification society and we want to see microwave results. Think about it, we order food and we want it on our doorstep in an hour or less. We order something from amazon and it needs to be there by the next day for it to be worth it. We draft a quarterback and we want him playing in the upcoming season or else it’s a wasted pick.
There is much more to building successful professionals than just putting them on the field and looking at their win loss record. Giving draft picks (especially quarterbacks) time to mature and soak everything in is beneficial to the overall growth of the player and what they can do for a franchise.
2024 Draft Notables
In this year’s draft we saw unprecedented things.
- 6 quarterbacks were taken in the top 12 picks (highest ever)
- Longest duration of offensive players taken in a draft at any stretch (1st 14 picks)
Below, is a very interesting article which looks into the last 54 years of the draft focusing on the quarterback position. There are many nuggets and data points to examine, but for anyone who is a nerd like myself, they’ll enjoy the work. Making sense of all these numbers and information is something talented people with a special mind do. My hat goes off to special individuals like this.
STAY HEALTHY
DD
_________________________________________________________________________________________
* I believe these players would be the ideal choice to start under center for their team full time by year two. From either contract amount or talent these starters have been constructed. All first round draft picks minus MPJ have been slated to start to make it more interesting. Many have been the starter for their team or have come from another team where they served as the starter last season.
** Either played in or won a Super Bowl
^ Rookie
54 Year History QB draft position
Check out more football talk from yours truly