Death to the Pac 12: All Great Things Must Come to a Screeching Halt
On Friday December 1st, the final Pac 12 Championship game will be decided between the Oregon Ducks (11-1) & the Washington Huskies (12-0) (+9.5). This will also mark the final Pac 12 game as a conference.
In a previous October matchup, the Huskies edged out the Ducks with a 36-33 victory in Seattle in front of 70,000 fans and millions of viewers. The game did not disappoint. We saw two great teams square off with College Football Playoff (CFP) implications.
Now, we fast forward to December and the CFP stakes are at an all time high. With Washington at number 3 and Oregon at number 5. The message is simple, win this game and you will represent the Pac 12 come January. The loser will have to hope and pray that something may break their way.
Quick History Lesson
The Pac 12 expanded from the Pac 10 in 2011 when Colorado and Utah were added into the conference.
I recall being a student-athlete at Oregon and we would have former players come speak to us. They would begin talking and suddenly be taken aback, recollecting how what is now the Pac 10 used to be the Pac 8 when they competed. They would often let out an embarrassed chuckle that they were (out)dating themselves in age by this omission.
I would always let a brief smile gently fold into the corner of my mouth because I knew one day in the future, it would be me. Recollecting the old days of the Pac 10 while I let out an embarrassed chuckle and now I would be the one (out)dating myself by this omission. I didn’t think this time in the future would be four years from that point. I thought maybe 44 years from then but things happen when the universe says so.
At the age of 25, the Pac 10 became the Pac 12 for me, and stayed this way for an eye whopping 12 years before the collapse of the Pac.
This year has been bitter sweet to say the least. At one point in time, there were as many as six Pac 12 teams ranked in the country before the cannibalism of conference play reared its ugly head. This simply justified what most on the West coast already knew, the Pac 12 is a competitive conference that often gets overlooked in the college football landscape.
Don’t get me wrong, I rank the SEC as the best conference followed by the Big 10 (which is actually made up of about 30 teams at this point but whose counting) and then the Pac 12. What I’m saying is the pool of talent the Pac 12 has doesn’t always match up in the rankings at the end of the year. Considering these teams beat up on one another and usually fall a game of so out of the playoff race or a BCS game.
Looking at quarterback play alone, you can point to marquee players like Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, & Shadeur Sanders. All quarterbacks (if not currently) were at one point mentioned as serious heisman hopefuls and front runners during the season. All with great ability to be considered the best player in college football for the 2023 season.
As we get down to brass tacks, it’s safe to say that Nix and Penix Jr. will be at the heisman trophy ceremony in December. Potentially adding some hardware to their personal collection and their respective university’s trophy room.
If It Ain’t About The Money
Don’t be blowin’ me up, boy* I ain’t gettin’ up
About The Money – T.I.
If it ain’t about the money
Ain’t no use in you ringin’ my line, stop wastin’ my time
If it ain’t about the money
Nah I can’t even hear what you say, I ain’t finna do shit
I couldn’t have said it any better myself. The great philosopher T.I. put it in great context what college football and sports has become, a massive cash grab. Well not really a cash grab, but if they are giving it out why not take it?
With TV deals exploding at an all-time high, the move for universities to jump ship ultimately has to do with the money they earn with their TV deal (I’ll add a blog about this topic in the near future).
The Pac has always lagged behind conferences like the SEC, Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 (which now has about 45 teams) when it comes to tv revenue. The Pac has always been at a disadvantage based on its regional location as well.
As a football/sports fan, I love living on the West coast. On college football Saturday, games are beginning at 9am sharp and ending around 10/11pm. On NFL Sunday, games begin at 10am and conclude around 830pm.
Living on the East coast has never been friendly to the sports fan. For them, college football Saturday begins at noon est and the final game(s) will conclude well after midnight est. Their NFL “early kicks” are at 1pm est and end at roughly 1130pm. Early kick at 1pm! Quoting one of my favorite special teams coaches at Oregon Coach Oz “You gotta be shitting me!”
Having said this, there are times when fans on the East coast aren’t awake to see ending of evening games. They got shit to do respectively. If you play a prime time game on the West coast, say 4pm or 5pm, you run the risk of those on the East coast not being able to see your full performance.
The creation of the Pac 12 network and Pac 12 After Dark did nothing to help this. Let Uncle Drew help you out a little bit.
Pac 12 as a network is not included in regular cable packages/subscriptions (or wasn’t maybe it is now). The only people willing to pay for a Pac 12 tv package would be someone who is alumni or has personal interest these schools. That was mistake number one.
Mistake number two was thinking that airing football games late into the night would satisfy a market/customer that did not exist. Let me tell you, as a player/coach this sucks. Waiting around the hotel all day watching football games, only to have your team kickoff the evening game at 7pm, finish around midnight, get into your bed around 130am, and then wake up the next day around 9am to head in for treatment on a Sunday morning. Mind you, this schedule is if you were lucky enough to play a home game.
Mirror Mirror on the Wall
You know I always lace you with my prediction and why wouldn’t I give you the breakdown of what I think will happen in the last Pac 12 game.
Oregon has been playing great football while Washington has been winning. There’s a big difference in me saying this. Oregon has looked strong, Washington has looked decent.
BODACIOUS!!!!
Simply put, Bo Nix is balling! There’s not other way to explain it, so I just have to show you…
- He’s had a QBR above 88.2 every game since losing to the Huskies over a month and a half ago
- He’s completed at least 72.0 % of his passes since losing to the Huskies
- He’s only been sacked 5 times on the year and once since losing to the Huskies
- He broke the single season completion record (315) at Oregon the last game against Oregon State
- He’s only had one interception since losing to the Huskies
- His completion percent on the season is 78.6 % which would be an NCAA record
- The Ducks have scored over 31 points in every game this season
On the other hand, Michael Penix Jr. has been winning game after game. Some consider this to be lack luster based on the size of the wins. As a former athlete, at the end of the day it’s about getting the win. No matter how pretty or ugly it is. It doesn’t matter that the date you took to prom isn’t a dime, all that matters is that you are at the prom. Coming with a dime is just the cherry on top. The Huskies still have a goose egg (0) in the loss column which is the biggest factor in where they sit in the rankings.
They began the season strong but have tapered off as of late.
I admit they’ve had to play in some unfavorable weather games that have not been ideal to their pass/spread happy offense but they still rode off into the sunset with the W. Back to back weeks they’ve had the pleasure (or bad luck) of competing in the rain against the Beavers and the Cougars.
They played in Corvallis two weeks ago in a damn near monsoon and some rain fell against Washington State in the Apple Cup. You know it’s raining bad when you can see it on the TV! They edged The Beavers by two and the Cougars by three.
Their season since their Oregon game hasn’t been pretty. Of their six opponents since that masterful matchup, they’ve won those games by a combined 36 points which averages out to 6 points per ball game. That essentially puts each game within one score away from defeat.
Ask any coach in any sport and they will tell you what matters at the end of the game is having more points than the other team. Whether by 1 point or 30 points. My high school coach told me something I’ll never forget for the rest of my days…
“Rather have a sloppy win, than a good loss any day.”
Coach Oliver Lucas – Montbello High School Head Coach
It’s hard to beat the same team twice, I found this out in the NFL. In the league, you play every team twice in your division. If you’re “lucky” enough, you might see them a 3rd time in the playoffs if you’re in a competitive/good division.
The opposing team has your game plan for beating them especially if you dismantled them handedly and your scheme worked to a T. It’s always tough to build on what you did well, now that they have time and film to counter your previous game plan.
With that being said, I have a close game between these two great teams.
What Friday’s Contest Will Look Like
I think the Ducks will slow down the tempo and make possessions count. I see them running the ball very well, working play action in, and having long sustained drives ending in points (field goals or touchdowns). Once Washington sees what the game plan is, they will counter and try to do something similar. It won’t be as “air it out” as they have been in the past, they will try to match the tempo and make the most of their possessions since they won’t have many. I see them exerting effort and time into establishing the run game and or shorter pass concepts to supplement run yardage.
I’ve been watching prediction stuff on YouTube the past couple of days just to get a sense of what the feel is and it’s been a little comical.
The argument most people have is that Oregon went up to Seattle and lost by 3 with a missed field goal to send it into overtime. Okay, understood. But most people also go on to say that if Oregon makes at least one 4th down conversion (they were 0-3) they win that game. I highly disagree with this.
I’ve never been a fan of wishful thinking when it comes to football. The pigskin (football) itself is shaped in an oblong way. If it bounces on the ground, chances are it might come right back to you. If you bounce that same ball again, chances are it will either short hop to you or skip 15 yards away from you.
What I am saying is, football is unpredictable. What happened, happened.
Oregon lost because they didn’t make enough plays. Washington won because they made the plays when they had to. Simple as that.
I will say this though… Washington has played both up, and down to their competition. I think they’ll show up as the Huskies we’ve known them to be earlier in the season.
Looking back to their 1st matchup, both teams ran the ball effectively well.
- Bucky Irving 22 carries for 127 yards 1 touchdown
- Jordan James 11 carries for 63 yards 1 touchdown
- Dillion Johnson 20 carries for 100 yards 1 touchdown
The big difference here is offensively. Oregon carried the ball 40 times for 204 yards while Washington carried it 23 times for 99 yards. Not many carries were distributed outside of Johnson, Penix is not a running quarterback. Oregon knows if they want to run the ball, they can. Running the ball might be the right dose of medicine to make it a long day for the Huskies defense and shorten the time the Huskies offense is on the field.
The biggest thing they want to do here, is rest their defense and not set them up for failure by having to defend the dynamic offense of the Ducks for longer than need be.
Both quarterbacks brought their A game and delivered as well.
- Bo Nix 33/44 327 yards passing 2 touchdowns 0 ints
- Michael Penix Jr. 22/37 302 yards passing 4 touchdowns 1 int
The best matchup on the field will be on both sides of the ball as these receivers are primed for similar, if not better numbers this go round.
- Rome Odunze 8 catches 128 yards 2 touchdowns
- Ja’Lynn Polk 6 catches 118 1 touchdown
- Troy Franklin 8 catches 154 yards 1 touchdown
Looking Back to October
Don’t forget, in the previous matchup, Washington was without Jalen McMillan in the lineup as he was fighting through a lower leg injury. He dressed for the game and participated through warm ups, but he did not see much action before watching his team from the sideline. He is healthy and should help the Huskies create more matchup problems for the Ducks.
The last team with the ball in a one score game will win. As long as Coach Lanning doesn’t make any bonehead decisions when he doesn’t have to. The Ducks should be in control of the game.
A sour taste that lingers in Duck’s mouth from their 1st matchup is performance on 4th down. They went 0-3 (0%). This hurt because they were good on 3rd down, going 10-16 (63%). The Huskies on the other hand were 2-3 (66%) on 4th down and 5-11 (45%) on 3rd.
When you are successful on 3rd down, you can keep drives going, the opposing teams defense spends much more time on the field, and you get into a flow or rhythm on offense and create confidence. Ducks controlled the ball for nearly 10 minutes more than the Huskies in the previous game.
Final Answer
Everything I’ve said points in the direction of Oregon winning this game.
I’ve watched the last couple games closely and I have to give major credit to offensive coordinator, coach Will Stein. He’s been calling some masterful stuff. Giving fits to defenses by the many complexities they have to defend.
I watched the game versus Arizona State where they scored on all six of their 1st half possessions. Garnering success from every which way. Whether it was a tight end screen, a deep ball, zone running, or crossers. They were cooking on all cylinders and have been for the most part.
I tuned into the Oregon State game where their 1st scoring drive tallied 15 plays, 88 yards, and took 8 minutes and 41 seconds capped of by a 14 yard touchdown pass to Bucky Irving. Their last scoring drive consisted of 12 plays, 82 yards, 4 minutes and 53 seconds concluding with a 1 yard touchdown run by Jordan James.
The Ducks can have their way with the Huskies defense. I predict they will rush for North of 250 yards. This gives them the chance to control the clock while punishing the Huskies defense and keeping their offense on the sideline where they belong.
This won’t be the high scoring affair that many believe, but I see it as a matchup that true football junkies will appreciate. Lots of chess moves and power plays will be on display which is a sign of very good coaching. Look for the Ducks to continue their masterful work on 3rd downs and extending drives.
I have the Oregon Ducks winning by 4 and representing the Pac 12 in the College Football Playoff come January. I believe that Dan Lanning won’t steal this defeat from the jaws of victory like he did previously.
Final score 34-30 Ducks roll.
I went back and forth with this for two reasons…
- 1. Oregon is my alma mater and my teammates may stone me to death for not picking them
- 2. I’ve been taught to hate everything purple because of the rivalry between UW and Oregon
So, now I can rest a little easier knowing I’ve done my job. Thoroughly sifting through the numbers while also following my gut instinct.
Look for the Oregon coaches and play callers to put some distance between Bo Nix and the other heisman finalists with one last spectacular performance with numbers to match. He’ll have a few passing td’s and maybe a rushing td as well. Look for some quarterback counters and draws to maximize Bo’s running ability.
For my degenerate gamblers out there, I would definitely walk up to the ticket window and throw $10 on the Huskies. I see them covering the point spread of +9.5. I think this will shrink as we get closer to game time, so get your bets in ASAP to give you some wiggle room.
As far as the o/u goes, I would choose the under considering everything I’ve said in this blog. I don’t think there will be many possessions. I see each team getting MAYBE 3/4 possessions in the first half. Six to eight possession for the entirety of the game. EVERY SINGLE ONE WILL COUNT.
I think both teams will take very good care of the ball like they did in the last matchup.
The o/u currently sits at 68.5. If i remember correctly, it was 67.5 in the first matchup (69 was the final total for that game). If Oregon didn’t miss on their last 4th down to seal the game and give the ball back to UW for their final score, the under would’ve been achieved.
My guy White Mike in Eugene told me to take the under and the Huskies spread. I always gotta consult with White Mike and we finally agree on something for once. I hope he enjoys the game in Vegas, smoking on a nice cigar with some warmed up Henny, as the Ducks add another Pac 12 title to the shelf.
I hope you have enjoyed the last season of the Pac like I have. Wishing all the student-athletes the best of luck headed into their bowl games, the next season, and the real world for those graduating and moving on.
Best,
Double Dee